Subject: The AdSense Bubble

From: Omer Zak <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 20:41:38 +0200

>From some information which I see on the Web and from discussions with
some people, I see that the AdSense business is picking up the
characteristics of a bubble.

People start pursuing hare-brained Web site designs, which aim at
attracting surfers and ad click dollars.  They are beginning to overlook
the basics of providing a benefit to people of the world, thanks to what
they are doing.

This becomes more and more like the DotCom craze of few years ago, when
people had all those k00l ideas for attracting surfers, but collapsed
when those Web page hits failed to monetize into really serious money.

What I am asking the collective wisdom of the Hackers-IL for:
A gaze in the crystal ball.

How will the AdSense craze look like in the next few months?  What
exactly will trigger the bubble burst?  How will the shakedown look
like?  Who will survive afterwards?

My own predictions:
- Google will institute a new policy of closing AdSense accounts, which
fail to generate at least $2 revenue during the first 30 days of their
operation.
- Google will advise prospective Webmasters to start their Web sites and
promote them for few months before trying to register for AdSense.
- Google will provide another service (adapted from existing services),
which will analyze a Web site's traffic and advise whether it is ready
for AdSense or not.

Those actions will lead to bubble bursting because this will cause the
get-rich-quick people to go away for another way to make money fast.
Google will also be spared the expense of having to manage several
AdSense accounts (I wonder how much does carrying a low-volume AdSense
account cost them).
                                            --- Omer

---

From: cyphunk <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 11:54:27 +0200

> which will analyze a Web site's traffic and advise whether it is ready
A start but one could bypass all of these measures by doing exactly as
you suggested... starting their bland content or content void sites,
watch their stats until they get a decent number of hits and then add
the adsense banners.  Ultimately I disagree that it is a bubble.  As I
understand, the adsense system determines the cost for banners/keywords
according to the click-through vs non-click-through ratio.  Therefor the
system is quite fare to the retailer looking to advertise, regardless if
their add winds up on a content-void-getting-rich-quick-with-adsense
site or not.

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